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Candlestick Technical Analysis : An IntroductionShow
The Japanese candlestick, hereafter simply referred to as candlestick or candle, is a very effective way to convey the open, high, low, close price points for the period in question, which may be minute, hour, day, week, etc. as supported by the charting software.
The body of the candlestick is defined by the open and close prices. The tails of the candlestick (some call them wicks or shadows) indicate the high and low prices. A color or shading convention is used for the body of the candlestick to convey the up/down direction of the candlestick. An up candle has the closing price higher than the opening price. A down candle has the closing price lower than the opening price. Colors used for the body include red and blue for down candles; green and white for up candles – subject to the convention used in the charting software which may allow user customization.
Visually, candlestick charting is very effective in conveying the up and down periodic movements of the stock price. At a glance, the user is able to see whether a stock closed higher than its opening price (up candle), or vice versa, a stock closed lower than its opening price (down candle). The length of the body as well as the tails show the range of price movement for the stock. And the user is able to follow the progression of candlesticks in successive periods.
There are various candlestick patterns such as doji and hammer (just to cite two from the long list of patterns which may span 1, 2, 3 or even more periods) that are used in candlestick technical analysis where significant conclusions are attached to each pattern.
The Candlestick Period or TimeframeShow
The Japanese candlestick, hereafter simply referred to as candlestick or candle, conveys the open, high, low, close price points for the period or timeframe falling into two broad categories – real-time analysis and historical analysis.
Real-time candlestick analysis is particularly relevant to the day-trader in order to interpret, analyze and make trading decisions down to the minute level or even lower (as may be the case for forex currency trading).
Historical candlestick analysis is particularly relevant to traders who engage in active or short-term trading. A commonly used period or timeframe is daily where the candlestick technical analysis is performed using end of day historical data.
Charting software is widely available for displaying candlestick charts, in the real-time (intra-day) sense or in the historical (inter-day) sense. Charting software and access to the stock data come in a variety of forms available on the local computer as well as through web sites, and these may be free or paid services.
Beyond the actual charting function, there is the other side which is the recognition of the candlestick patterns and how they form trends and trend reversals which can then be applied to make trading decisions. Candlestick technical analysis involves the availability of candlestick charting functions along with the recognition and interpretation of candlestick pattern formations. The former is simply provided by computing technology; no one plots charts from stock data anymore. The latter is a function indulged by the human with or without computing technology assistance.
Candlestick patterns may span 1, 2, 3 or even more periods. The recognition of candlestick patterns involves an interpretation aspect as not all pattern formations are strictly defined in precise numerical terms. And beyond that, trading decisions have to be made based on the candlestick patterns.
What Do Candlestick Patterns Indicate?Show
The Japanese candlestick, hereafter simply referred to as candlestick or candle, conveys the open, high, low, close price points for the period in question. For the sake of this article, let’s consider the daily period (using end of day historical data) which is suitable for active and short-term traders.
Candlestick patterns can embrace 1, 2, 3 or even more days. Examples of 1-day candlestick patterns include doji, hammer and harami; 2-day patterns include counterattack, engulfing and separating lines; 3-day patterns include morning star and evening star.
In general terms, the essence of candlestick pattern formations is that they indicate continuance or reversal of an up-trend or a down-trend. This is the basic answer to “What do candlestick patterns indicate?”.
For example, a doji is a candlestick pattern where the open and close prices are at the same level. Following a trend in which the stock price has risen or dropped for a duration of many days, the appearance of the doji is a signal that the trend may be coming to an end, with an ensuing reversal of the stock price direction. Therefore, the trader must take the signal and observe what happens on the next trading day and react accordingly.
Let’s look at that example in more detail. Suppose a doji appears after a 10-day run-up in the price of a stock in which the trader is holding a long position. With the appearance of the doji, the trader should take note of this signal and look for a closing price below the doji level on the next trading day. If that happens, the trader would be well-advised to close the long position and take the profit because it is likely that the up-trend is in reversal progression.
This is only one example from the multitude of candlestick patterns. There are entire books and web sites dedicated to the study and discussion of candlestick patterns, what they mean, the interpretation of the candlestick pattern formations, and the trading decisions to be taken.
Recognizing and Interpreting Candlestick PatternsShow
There are many candlestick patterns in the full spectrum of the Japanese candlesticks literature. It has been written that there are only about a dozen candlestick patterns that a trader has to learn about in terms recognizing and interpreting candlesticks and how to apply that analysis to make trading decisions. I agree with that assessment given the need for the human to do the recognition and interpretation.
My preference is to use software to perform candlestick technical analysis. That way, I can focus more time on other matters of trading such as keeping track of company news and events, and monitoring the pulse of not only the company (and stock) but also the industry that the company is in.
As it would be ludicrous to have humans plot the charts manually, I feel that doing candlestick technical analysis is best left to computer software. In this age of technology, there is no reason to resort to human recognition of candlestick patterns. On the other hand, the human’s role is ultimately to look at the technical analysis results presented by the software and make the final judgement as it pertains to actual trading decisions.
Having said that, there are those who go one step further and say that trading should be totally automated without any human emotional and psychological interference. In theory that sounds good. In practice, I’m not sure such systems yet exist for the retail trader. That day may come sooner than we think.
In the meantime, I think using software to do the recognition and interpretation of candlestick patterns is the sensible thing to do. The application of the candlestick technical analysis results is left to human judgement. The trader decides whether or not to place the trade once presented with the option to do so as indicated by candlestick technical analysis.
Trading Success with Candlestick Technical AnalysisShow
There are many candlestick patterns in the entire spectrum of the Japanese candlesticks literature in print and on the Internet. It is an enormous task to learn to recognize the candlestick patterns and to interpret the candlestick signals to translate into trading decisions. It is a time-consuming task, or a distraction in the very least, to determine candlestick patterns and to interpret the candlestick signals in order to decide on what to trade and when.
You should research the different types of candlestick patterns and how candlestick technical analysis works in identifying trends and trend reversals. However, you should not spend time deciphering stock charts looking for candlestick patterns and determining if they constitute a valid signal. I submit that your time is better spent on other trading activities such as keeping track of company news and events, and monitoring the pulse of not only the company (and stock) but also the industry that the company is in.
You need to find software for your computer or available through web sites to provide candlestick charting along with candlestick technical analysis where the candlestick signals (patterns) are shown to you. Then you, as the stock trader (not the candlestick technical analyst), can use the software provided information to make your successful trading decisions.
Examine the historical trading performance using the candlestick technical analysis software on your stocks of choice. This will give you confidence that there is credence in the method and that the system works. Begin with paper trading a basket of stocks and monitor your trading performance as you experience and refine your use of candlestick technical analysis. When ready, proceed to real-world trading with your new-found tool. Do not forget or abandon your other trading tools and resources as candlestick technical analysis is a complement to (not a replacement of) your trading tool box and your trading wisdom.
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